Here we go again!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407W5+gif/083540W_sm.gif

I just read the National Hurricanse Center disscussion on Dean. Right now it looks like it gonna miss us. But, right now there is no expected shear and it is headed for very warm water which could make for a big one. Didn't I read a thread a week ago about how lucky we have been so far?

Yes, this one is looking like mandatory evacuations for the Keys are inevitable in a few days. So far its moving straight this way at 20 MPH. Uhg.

At least your ears can heal up:FIREdevil:

Hey Gamble, did you get your ass whipped last night? It sure looked ugly up your way

Sorry Rich, four posts deep and I am already derailing the thread.

Yep, that wise guy that made the remark last week just screwed us. If your mobile home gets blown away......

8/11/07
Spearchucker

We are in the dog days of summer, where the gulf lays flat for weeks on end. I think it will be fine. The good thing is that their are no active tropical systems. (I hope I did not just jinx it...)


Way to go John :redcard::D

8/11/07
Spearchucker



Way to go John :redcard::D
But at least the SPO will go off before the entire gulfcoast shoreline is blown into oblivion! :yay:

But at least the SPO will go off before the entire gulfcoast shoreline is blown into oblivion! :yay:


Now your giving pridictions,,, GREAT!!!! John SSSSHHHHSSHHH

The wave watch link shows how big it will get in the gulf. Watch from 72 hours on to the end.


http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/wna_ecg.anim.gif

Frank

Have mercy on us!

I can deal with that track.

The wave watch link shows how big it will get in the gulf. Watch from 72 hours on to the end.


http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/wna_ecg.anim.gif

Frank

That's a really cool animated Gif,

I forgot to mention that this updates every few hours so it will look different. When I posted it at 2:00 it got huge in the gulf and had 40+ foot waves. Now it goes a bit south and cuts over land so its not quite as big when it hits Texas. It's always fun to watch this change as the days go by when a hurricane is coming.

Frank

Im Ticked I Hate this storm. Im scheduled to leave for cozumel friday for 9 days of some wicked spearing and fishing. This thing better turn north or Im going to have to work next week:cussing:

Dean is now a hurricane. The disscussion said that all the models agree that it is heading way South of us. Which is a very good thing. They also figure it will be at 115knts within 120 hours. You might wanna rethink Cancun at this point.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/160908.shtml?

For me, Dean is the perfect storm. It will make it just rough enough in the Keys that I'll have to cancel a work trip I had planned for the Tortugas starting Saturday.

Without the conflict of that trip, I can now shoot the Open. :toast:

For me, Dean is the perfect storm. It will make it just rough enough in the Keys that I'll have to cancel a work trip I had planned for the Tortugas starting Saturday.

Without the conflict of that trip, I can now shoot the Open. :toast:

I don't mean to be a dick, but I'm sure the folks over in Puerto Rico don't share your same lighthearted sentiment.
In all seriousness, let's try to remember what these storms do to people's homes and lives...

The NHC now says it could become a CAT 4.

great now my baby will be born in a huricane

Then I guess then that you'd have to name the baby Jack :)

"I was born in a cross-fire hurricane
And I howled at my ma in the driving rain,
But it's all right now, in fact, it's a gas!
But it's all right. I'm Jumpin' Jack Flash,
It's a Gas! Gas! Gas!"

Sign that fellow up for "The Singing BEE".:)

Well the trip to cozumel got canceled looks like ill just have work a little and fish more this next week instead.

I am predicting landfall at the Louisianna Texas border.

I am predicting landfall at the Louisianna Texas border.

I hope that you are bad at predicting stuff.

I HOPE not. The hills area of Texas has had over 30 inches of rain above average this year. They have had flash floods in many places.

But the models are slowly showing more of a right hand turn once it passes by this front that is holding it to a more Western pattern. They have moved the path somewhat more Westnorthwest in the last day or so. The last I saw it was a Cat 2 with plenty of hot water in front of it. I know I seem transfixed by these things but living 8 ft above sea level will do that to you.

It doesn't look good for Jamaica. I feel terrible. I've heard that in some parts, they are still rebuilding from the other storms a few years ago.
Do we have anyone from Jamaica on the board?
God help them.

Doesn't look good for the Caymans either...I just hope it stays away from SW Louisiana, but then again I don't wish this crap on anyone....except maybe it could turn due south and go visit Mr. Chavez.

Started early and got my plywood today after work, I'm sure everybody who's going to will be at it this weekend. Even if it hits lower on the Texas coast, we
ll still be on the wet side.:(

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DEAN COULD HAVE WEAKENED A
LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT REMAINS AS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
HURRICANE AND WILL DETERMINE THE INTENSITY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 42059 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR AND A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH....122
KM/HR AS DEAN MOVED NEARBY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.


To give some prespective to that Katrina had sustained winds 140mph.

Yeah, he's definitely a beast. Plus, he's strengthening and slowing down. Not good...

It's not looking good for Jamaica.

To give some prespective to that Katrina had sustained winds 140mph.

At the time it made landfall it did, but the day before it made landfall Katrina had sustained winds of 175 mph.

I HOPE not. The hills area of Texas has had over 30 inches of rain above average this year. They have had flash floods in many places.


I guess you have forgotten about Rita. It slips a lot of people's minds because Katrina was 3 weeks prior, but East Texas and West Louisiana, precisely where you HOPE it hits, got obliterated by Rita. I drove I-10 two days after the storm to return to Houston and there was a 100 mile stretch of road with no power. Do your homework next time before wishing the hurricane on anyone.

Do your homework next time before wishing the hurricane on anyone.

Forget homework, why would you EVER wish a hurricane on anyone? :(

What I meant was I hope my prediction was wrong. I was typing the same time someone else was and they beat me to an additional post. I don't wish that on anybody. Katrina did drop froma Cat 5 to a 4 beofre landfall.

There is a theory that there are large vortexs in the eyewall that cause the collosal damage above the overall windspeed.

Pretty good story if you have the time

http://www.wunderground.com/education/hugo1.asp

These guys took 5 1/2 G's going through the eyewall of Hugo

It's a cat 5. Max sustained winds of 155 mph.

So much for my theory. I thought at some point it would turn. I guess the ridge held it down.